9/3/2006

Peak oil is the concept that, at a certain point in time, oil production reaches a plateau and then steadily declines. This concept can be applied to a single oil field, a country, or global world production.

Nearly every oil field follows a similar bell curve. As production begins, the bell curve steadily increases, eventually reaching an apex. This apex is called peak oil, and it does not last very long. Inevitably, production begins to decline, thereby creating the downward bell curve.

In the United States, peak oil occurred in 1970. That year, we produced 10 million barrels per day. The apex only lasted a few months and then production began to decline. Today we produce about 5 million barrels per day (plus another 2 million in liquid equivalents, such as liquid natural gas) and consume 20 million barrels per day. By 2010, we will produce about 4 million barrels per day. If U.S. consumption stays at 20 million barrels per day (a conservative estimate), we will need to import 70% of our oil needs by 2010. Thus, we are entering a very precarious era.

To make matters worse, global oil production is peaking. In fact, it is my opinion that peak oil is imminent. My 300+ hours of research on this subject has led to three conclusions:

1. Within 2-4 years (by 2010) we will reach global peak production.
2. Within 3 years (by 2008), high oil prices will have begun creating economic havoc.
3. High oil prices will eventually collapse the economy.
 
The focus of my research tried to answer one question: When will we reach global peak production? There are a lot of different opinions, but the facts point to this decade, and perhaps as early as 2007. This article attempts to make a case using those facts.

One number that stood out to me was 90 million barrels per day. This is the expected demand by 2010. When I looked at the forecasted production data, I realized that this number was likely not going to be reached. Currently we are producing 85 million barrels per day and demand is expected to increase about 1.5% for the next few years. Yes, new production is coming online, but there are a limited number of projects that will begin production in the next few years. These projects must offset annual net production declines at existing fields of 2.5%, and a projected annual demand increase of 1.5%.

To meet the expected 1.5% annual demand increase for the next few years (2006-2010), production must reach 90 million barrels per day. This will require an increase of about 14 million barrels per day of new production. Can global oil production add 14 million barrels per day over the next few years? It’s possible, but unlikely. What is more likely is that peak oil production will never reach 90 million barrels per day, but something closer to 88. If you want an estimated time for peak production, my bet is 2008. This will also likely be the year when oil reaches $100 a barrel. We are literally on the precipice of $100-a-barrel oil.

Let’s look at the data:

Global demand was 77 million barrels per day in 2002. At the end of 2005, demand had risen to 84.4 million barrels per day. Thus, demand has increased substantially this decade. We can expect demand to increase 1.5% annually for the next few years (which is a slower growth rate due higher oil prices). The result will be demand reaching approximately 90 million barrels a day by 2010.

Here are the calculations:

Demand
2006:   84.36 + 1.5%       =  84.36 + 1.27       =  85.63
2007:   85.63 + 1.5%       =  85.63 + 1.28       =  86.91
2008:   86.91 + 1.5%       =  86.91 + 1.30       =  88.21
2009:   88.21 + 1.5%       =  88.21 + 1.32       =  89.53

New Oil Required               
2006:    84.36 – 2.5%     =  2.11  =  82.25  +  3.38   =  85.63
2007:    85.63 – 2.5%     =  2.14  =  83.49  +  3.42   =  86.91
2008:    86.91 – 2.5%     =  2.17  =  84.74  +  3.47   =  88.21
2009:    88.21 – 2.5%     =  2.21  =  86.00  +  3.53   =  89.53

New Oil: 3.38 + 3.42 + 3.47 + 3.53 = 13.8 million barrels.

The problem we face is that, to meet demand for the next few years, we will have to annually produce an additional 3.4 million barrels per day (1.3 million barrels per day for increased demand and 2.1 million barrels per day to offset production declines at existing fields. There are potentially enough projects to meet demand from 2006 to 2008, but 2009 and beyond become problematic. Once we get to the end of the decade, producing enough new oil to meet demand becomes very unlikely.  

Why is this happening? We stopped finding oil. Peak discovery was in 1965. Since then, discovery has steadily decreased. By 2010, discoveries will be paltry, likely only 3-4 billion barrels (about one month’s worldwide demand). Moreover, the last year we found any significant quantities of oil was 2000. Thus, the pipeline for new projects is soon going to dry up.

In 2004, 29.9 billion barrels of oil were consumed worldwide, while only 7.6 billion barrels of new oil reserves were discovered. Thus, we consumed 4 barrels for every barrel found.

In 2005, 30.4 billion barrels of oil were consumed worldwide, while only 5 billion barrels of new oil reserves were discovered. Thus, we consumed 6 barrels for every barrel found.

Perhaps the most significant evidence of peak oil is the decline of oil discoveries since 2000. For, without discoveries, there can be no new production.
 
Year              Major Discoveries        Billions of Barrels Discovered                            2000:            13                                   17.9
2001:            6                                     10.4
2002:            2                                     10.9    
2003:            1                                      7.7
2004:            0                                      7.6
2005:            1                                      5.0

Approximately 95% of all conventional oil has already been found. Thus, only about 100-200 billion barrels of conventional oil are left to be discovered (approximately 3 years supply). Of this 100-200 billion, there are likely only 1-3 major fields that will produce more than 100 thousand barrels per day. World demand has become so huge that this is only a drop in the bucket. Thus, the oil still to be found is so small that it will not increase global production, but only stem the decline rate.

There are approximately 1.3 trillion barrels of oil reserves claimed by oil companies. This does not include the Tar Sands in Canada or the extra heavy oil in Venezuela, which are considered unconventional oil. This 1.3 trillion number is inflated, because OPEC countries overestimate their total in order to get larger production quotas. It is projected that it will take 30-35 years to consume all of the remaining reserves. However, most likely, we only have 15-20 years of plentiful supply (oil available for sale on the global market). Once we get towards the end, there is going to be less exporting and massive shortages. Many countries will keep their last remaining barrels for themselves.

Plentiful supply for the next 15-20 years does not mean that demand will be met. For, demand will exceed supply long before we run out of plentiful oil, thereby disrupting the supply chain and causing economic havoc. After we reach peak oil, the price will soar, thereby depressing demand. This will allow supply and demand to find an equilibrium, thereby reducing or possibly preventing shortages.   

Peak production is also evidenced by the fact that production is either declining or on the precipice of decline in every country except Canada, Venezuela, and the Middle East (where the majority of reserves remain). Soon the Middle East will have to increase production dramatically on an annual basis to meet world demand. At a certain point, this will not be possible, and global peak production will be reached. Note that Canada and Venezuela's increases of unconventional oil are minimal on an annual basis.

U.S. government economic planners (EIA – Energy Information Agency, part of the U.S. Department of Energy) currently project global peak production to be around 2015. This seems way too optimistic to me. The current excess worldwide production capacity is estimated to be only 1.5 million barrels per day. In fact, only one country, Saudi Arabia, claims any excess production capacity (a verbal declaration, without any documentation). With future demand requiring at least 3.4 millions barrels per day of new production each year, this leaves new projects to meet demand. Simply put, soon there aren't going to be enough new projects.

Most researchers agree that peak oil is imminent. Here is a list of forecasts:

2005                Ken Deffeyes (Oil Geologist/Author "Beyond Oil")
2006                T. Boone Pickens (Oil Executive)
2006-2007      A. M. S. Bakhitari (Iranian Oil Executive)
2006-2007      Matthew Simmons (Banker/Author "Twilight in the Desert")
2007                 Anonymous Pemex Oil Geologist (Oilcast #28)
2010                 Colin Campbell ((Oil Geologist/Author "The Coming Oil Crisis")
2010                 C. Skrebowski (Petroleum Economist)
Before 2010    David Goodstein  (Cal Tech Professor/Author "Out of Gas")
After 2010        World Energy Council
2016                 EIA (US Government Energy Information Administration)
After 2020        IEA (International Energy Agency)
After 2020        CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates)

I would like to make a few comments about EIA, IEA, and CERA. These three organizations are the main sources of information for the mainstream media. Moreover, all three are affiliated with the Energy Industry. It is in their interest to see that this Industry is shown in a positive light. It is of note that none of them are concerned yet with Peak Oil. CERA for instance, claims that there is plenty of oil to meet demand of 100 million barrels of oil by 2015, and that Peak Oil will occur well beyond 2020.

Nearly all of the major oil companies cite one of these three organizations when they debunk peak oil. Other than the CEO of Total (France’s largest oil company), all of the major oil companies have debunked peak oil, claiming it is decades away. With the mainstream media accepting the information from these organizations, as well as quotes from the CEOs of the major oil producers, there has not yet been a cry for changes in our energy policy.
        
Production Decreases:

Currently 116 large fields produce nearly 50 percent of production. Most of these fields are old and in depletion. The fields below show the common theme of production declines at the world’s giant fields. (Numbers are production in barrels per day).

Oseberg (Norway):              1994 (800 thousand)            2002 (200 thousand)
Brent (North Sea):                1984 (450 thousand)            2001 (80 thousand)
Prudhoe (Alaska):                1981 (1.6 million)                  2000 (500 thousand)
Romashkino (Russia):         1970 (1.6 million)                  1998 (250 thousand)
Forties (North Sea):             1977 (500 thousand)             2000 (50 thousand)
Samotlor (Russia):               1978 (3 million)                      2001 (300 thousand)
Daqing (China):                    2000 (1 million)                      2006 (600 thousand)
Cantarell (Mexico):               2003 (2 million)                      2009 (1.5 million)
Norway (All Production)       2000 (3.1 million)                   2005 (2.5 million)
U.K. (All Production)             2000 (2.9 million)                   2005 (1.7 million)
USA (All Production)            2005 (5 million)                      2010 (4 million)

When you look at these numbers, you can understand why the annual net production decline rate is at least 2.5%. Once we get to 2010, the decline rate will be even higher. This is because we stopped finding giant fields after the 1970s. Most of the large-producing fields today are old, mature and declining. In fact, one of the most troubling signs of peak oil is that the top 4 fields in the world are all on the precipice of rapid decline: Ghawar, Burgan, Cantarell, and Daqing.

When you look at the current top 20 producers, who account for 85% of production, it is apparent that they will not be able to expand production for much longer:

                                     2005              2007 (Est.)       Direction (2008-2010)
Saudi Arabia                 9.5                9.8                   Small Increase
Russia                            9.5                9.7                   Flat
USA                                5.2                5.0                   Decline
Iran                                  4.0                4.2                   Flat
Mexico                            3.8                3.6                   Decline
China                              3.7                3.6                   Decline
Canada                          3.1                3.3                   Small Increase
Norway                           2.9                2.6                   Decline
Venezuela                      2.5                2.8                   Small Increase
UAE                                2.8                2.9                   Flat
Nigeria                           2.3                 2.5                   Small Increase
Kuwait                            2.6                 2.7                   Flat
Iraq                                 2.0                 2.0                   Flat
Algeria                           1.9                 1.9                   Small  Increase
UK                                  1.8                 1.5                   Decline
Libya                              1.6                 1.8                   Small Increase
Brazil                              1.5                 1.9                   Smal  Increase
Kazakhstan                   1.3                 1.7                   Small Increase
Qatar                              1.0                 1.0                  Small Increase
Angola                           1.2                  1.5                  Small Increase
                              ----------------------------------------------
                                    64.8                66.5 (million barrels per day)

If you compare 2005 to 2007 above, production is not expected to increase much. Also, with five of the top 20 producers in decline, and another five with flat production, it is going to be difficult to increase production for much longer (not with such a large decline rate to offset)

Once we get to 2009 and beyond, the possibility of increased production is minimal and a decline is much more likely. The numbers are stunningly clear. There simply is not going to be enough new oil to offset oil declines worldwide.

Large Oil Exporters

Russia has publicly given production estimates for the rest of the decade that are very small. The general consensus is that Russia is near peak oil and will not increase much from their current production rate. In fact, many analysts expect Russia to begin to decline before the end of this decade.

Norway reached peak in 2000 at 3.1 million barrels per day. Today they are nearing 2.5 million barrels per day and their net decline rate is at 11% and increasing annually. By 2010, Norway will be down to 1.6 million barrels per day, removing nearly 1 million barrels per day from the export market.

What is happening to Norway is also happening to the United Kingdom. They peaked in 1999 at 2.8 million barrels per day. Today they are nearing 1.5 million barrels per day and their net decline rate is at 12.5% and increasing annually. They became a net oil importer this year.

Iran is considered past peak and are expected to maintain their current production rate the rest of this decade and beyond. Even with their substantial reserves they will not be able to increase production.

Iraq is at war. The odds of them ramping up production are minimal the rest of this decade. If peace ever comes to Iraq, they have potential to double production to 4 million barrels per day (although this will take years to implement).

Mexico is on the precipice of major declines. Their exports to the United States are expected to drop from the current 1.5 million barrels per day, to less than 1 million barrels per day before the end of the decade. If Cantarell declines more rapidly than expected, ALL Mexican oil exports could stop shortly after the end of the decade. Currently, 8% of our oil imports come from Mexico. Who is going to make that up? If that doesn't concern you, how about this: nearly 50% of Mexico's budget comes from oil exports.

Very soon annual production declines will be nearly 1 million barrels per day from just three countries: Norway, United Kingdom, and Mexico. Norway and Mexico are currently two of the world’s largest exporters. It's unlikely they will even be exporting much beyond 2012.

Whereas we have major oil producers with large net decline rates, there is not enough new oil to offset these ongoing and increasing declines.

Estimated Production Increases (Next 4 years):

A large portion of the increased production from 2000 to 2005 was excess capacity coming online. With the increase in prices everyone began producing whatever they could. However, there is no longer any excess capacity, and we are forced to rely on new projects to meet increased demand.

Currently there are only a limited number of new projects around the world scheduled to begin production in 2006-2009. If these projects cannot reach 14 million barrels per day, then we will most likely have reached peak oil, and demand will not be met.

Location of New Projects    Potential New Production (in barrels per day):
Deep Water:                         3-5 million
(Brazil, Gulf of Mexico,
Angola, Nigeria, USA)
Saudi Arabia:                       1-3.5 million
Azerbaijan:                            400-800 thousand
Kazakhstan:                          400-800 thousand
Canada:                                 400-600 thousand
Venezuela:                             300-500 thousand
USA:                                       200-300 thousand
Caspian:                                200-600 thousand
Iran:                                         200-400 thousand
Kuwait                                     200-500 thousand
Libya:                                      200-500 thousand
Russia:                                   200-500 thousand
Abu Dhabi:                             200-500 thousand
Norway                                    200-350 thousand
Iraq:                                         100-300 thousand
China                                      100-200 thousand
Australia:                                100-150 thousand
Indonesia:                               100-150 thousand
Congo:                                    100-150 thousand
Vietnam:                                 100-150 thousand
Malaysia                                 100-120 thousand

When you evaluate these new projects (8 to 16 million barrels of potential production) in tandem with global demand and production declines over the next few years (14 million barrels), we are headed for the peak oil production apex very rapidly. I think production could reach 88 million barrels per day, but 90 million is unlikely. Every project would have to go perfectly, and Saudi Arabia would have to make good on their promise of 12.5 million barrels per day by 2009. 

It is difficult to find information about projected production for future projects. One source that I found, Jeff Rubin, the chief economist at CIBC World Markets, predicts new oil production to be 3.5 million barrels per day in 2006, 3 in 2007, and 3 in 2008. If you add these up, he is expecting 9.5 million barrels of increased production over the next three years.

Another source I found was Chris Skrebowski. His “MegaProject” spreadsheet lists new projects due to come online this decade. He has concluded from his research that new projects should average about 3.5 million barrels of new oil per day the rest of this decade. Thus, he expects new production to reach the 14 million barrels of new oil that I think will be needed to meet demand.

I will not be surprised if new production falls somewhere between Jeff Rubin’s and Chris Skrebowski’s forecasts. Thus, it will probably be somewhere around 10.5 million barrels. This implies Peak Oil around 88 million barrels per day.  

Another source I found was Oilcast #28 on OilCast.com. This audio file includes an interview with a PEMEX (Mexico) engineer. He has a few insightful comments. 1) Peak oil will be somewhere between 85 and 90 million barrels per day. 2) The Saudis are producing at maximum capacity. 3) It is unlikely the Saudis will produce much more than what they are currently producing.

If you add up the future projects, without Saudi Arabia meeting their forecasted production, we are in trouble. With their claim of increasing production 3.5 million barrels per day to 12.5, they are being depended on as the producer of last resort. Personally, I think 12.5 barrels per day is a pipedream. We’ll soon find out.

In Saudi Arabia, 6 giant fields produce 90 percent of their oil. All of these giants are old (beginning production in the 1950s and 1960s) and mature, and likely past their peak production. In 1982, OPEC countries stopped releasing production and reserve numbers on a field by field basis. In effect, they became secretive and have remained secretive. For this reason, we can only estimate (guess) when each field will reach peak. What we do know is that they have had ongoing technical problems with each of their maturing giants. They have depended on water injection for decades and are now experiencing recurring high water cuts. In essence, they are pumping too much water out of the ground instead of oil.

Getting the easy oil is long past for Saudi Arabia. They now have to revert to modern technical innovations, which are becoming more and more complicated. From what I read in “Twilight in the Desert” by Matthew Simmons, the Saudis are struggling just to maintain production, let alone have the ability to increase it. According to Simmon’s analysis, he thinks it is likely that one of their giants is on the precipice of decline (most likely Ghawar). If they lose one giant, they will likely go into production decline as a country. Whereas U.S. government planners are expecting Saudi Arabia to increase their production to meet worldwide demand, even the Saudis have claimed that the best they can do by 2009 is 12.5 million barrels per day.

Sadad al-Husseini, the recently retired head of exploration for Saudi Armaco, has stated in interviews that the West is deluded to rely on Saudi oil. He said that the most Saudi Arabia could produce is 12 million barrels a day, and even that may not be possible. What this means is that Saudi Arabia will very likely peak this decade.

In 1978 (the last year Aramco was run by international oil companies such as BP, Exxon, and Chevron), Aramco publicly released reserves on a field by field basis that totaled 110 billion barrels in proven reserves. In 1979, Aramco changed from foreign stewardship to Saudi Aramco (the Saudi royal family). In 1982, after the formation of OPEC, the Saudis increased their reserves to 150 billion barrels, although they had not discovered any new fields. Today, they claim 260 billion barrels in proven reserves, yet have never provided any documentation to substantiate their claims.

What we do know about Saudi reserves is that no new oil has been found in any significant quantities since 1978 (90% of their current production is coming from old fields). In addition, we know that they have produced more than 75 billion barrels since 1978. So, if we are to believe their numbers, Aramco should have stated their reserves at 335 billion barrels (260 + 75) in 1978. This number is so inflated as to be ridiculous, and yet everyone uses it. (I hear the number 260 billion on television all the time.) The correct number is closer to 125.

When you put this smaller reserve number in perspective, you realize that Saudi Arabia is not the producer of last resort. In fact, it's possible that they have already passed peak production, which for them was 10.5 million barrels per day in 1980.

My guess is that Saudi Arabia is lying when they claim they will be producing 12.5 million barrels per day in 2009. Starting in July 2004 they began producing 9.5 million barrels per day. This production rate remained constant until April 2006, when it dropped to 9.1. In May, June, and July, production remained approximately 9.0. My guess is that they are having depletion problems and we will never produce 10.5 million barrels per day again.

All OPEC countries have lied about their reserves in order to have larger quotas. It is considered normal business practice for OPEC members. Proof of this transgression was recently found in Kuwait. Petroleum Intelligence Weekly recently reported that Kuwait has 48 billion barrels of reserves, and not the 99 billion that they have claimed publicly. I would bet this is the same for all OPEC countries. This begs the question, how far off are the OPEC claimed reserves versus actual proven reserves? Is the oil supply situation worse than we realize?

Some people point to the huge unconventional reserves in Canadian Tar Sands as a producer of last resort for the global market. Current Tar Sand production in Canada is about 800 thousand barrels per day and is increasing about 10-15 percent per year. They expect to produce about 2.5-3.0 million barrels a day by 2015.

There is a large quantity of Tar Sands in Canada. Current proven reserves are estimated to be 350 billion barrels. Potential reserves are projected to be as much as 2 trillion barrels. The problem is that it takes a long time to increase production of unconventional oil. If they have enough natural gas to expand production, more oil production will come online after 2015. However, once we reach 2015, production declines elsewhere will be intensifying. The bell curve for global production from 2015 to 2030 is not pretty. Even if Canadian Tar Sands production increases to 5 million barrels per day by 2025, this won't have much impact on global supplies.

Another producer with large potential production is Venezuela. They have potentially 1 trillion barrels of reserves in extra heavy unconventional oil. Their heavy oil production should increase dramatically as oil prices rise. We should see 1-2 million barrels per day of heavy oil production sometime in the next decade. Like the Canadian Tar Sands, it will be a slow process to expand production. They are currently producing about 250 thousand barrels per day of extra heavy oil.

Peak oil could be delayed until 2010, with small increases each year due to diminished demand from high oil prices or a recession. If this happens, we could see global production like the following:

2007:   86.2 (million barrels per day)
2008:   86.5
2009:   86.8
2010:   87
2011:   86.5
2012:   86

It doesn’t really matter if peak oil occurs in 2007 or 2010. Either way, demand is going to exceed supply very soon. Moreover, once we get to 2010, we are likely to see shortages and extremely high prices.

Anyway you look at it, peak oil is imminent. Soon the net depletion rate will exceed 3 million barrels per day, and it’s not going to be possible to produce 3 million barrels of new oil in a calendar year. As stated previously, there aren’t going to be enough new projects.

One interesting thing I have learned from researching peak oil is that oil shortages are not inevitable in the short term. Oil companies could meet global demand for the rest of this decade and beyond. This possibility could occur if prices are high enough to significantly decrease demand. Once gasoline hits $5 to $7 per gallon, less people will be driving and demand will go down. This could prevent shortages. However, once peak oil is reached, there is nothing that will prevent high prices.

If prices are going to increase dramatically once we reach peak oil, at what point do these high prices collapse the economy? Well, what can the economy absorb? $100 a barrel? $200? All of my research leads to one conclusion: we're in deep trouble. We have become utterly dependent on cheap oil and it's about to get expensive. Initially, inflation is going to rise as businesses increase their prices to pay their delivery and energy bills. Consider how many delivery trucks are needed to move goods in this country. Consider global transportation costs for imported goods. Once the economy collapses, however, I expect deflation (for instance, hair cuts for $5, Gardner services for $10). I don't see how we can get through this without economic havoc.  

The magnitude of the approaching oil crisis is beyond the average person’s comprehension. It is such a huge problem that it is difficult to conceptualize the ramifications. For instance, how do we commute to work when it costs too much to drive? How do we pay for our food, gas, and electric bills when they double and triple from the increased energy cost? It’s mind boggling. All I know is that the world is about to change dramatically and no one seems prepared.

If you think there is a substitute for oil, there isn't―at least not one that can maintain our way of life. Substitutes are so lacking that the situation is dire.

Ethanol and other biofuels are promising, but the volumes of production are unlikely to meet demand or make much of an impact. For instance, we are currently using 14% of our corn crop for ethanol and that only makes 12 million gallons per day. Worse, creating ethanol is energy intensive. To produce each gallon of ethanol requires nearly a gallon of fossil fuels. Thus, the net energy benefit is not very efficient. Ethanol is so energy intensive to produce, that without subsidies it isn’t economical.

Solar and wind are good choices, but they will take years of investment to have an impact. The Europeans are leading the way with wind. Countries like Denmark literally rely on wind power.

Hydrogen must be converted into an energy source, which requires energy. It will be decades until an efficient conversion process is found. Until then we will be forced to use expensive natural gas and solar power to convert Hydrogen to a usable energy source.

Nuclear is unlikely because of the huge cost and time required to build plants. We will build a plant or two, but we are in a race to save our economy. Will time run out before these plants can be financed?

Liquefied coal is a real possibility, but it will require new plants and billions of dollars of investment. Along with wind, Coal to Liquid (CTL) is perhaps are best hope. This is the one source that can replace oil as a transportation fuel in significant quantities.

Coal will be used for electricity.

Like oil, natural gas and propane are going to get expensive and in short supply after 2010.

Daily US Transportation Fuel Consumption (2006):
Gasoline:   350 (million gallons)
Diesel:       160
Jet Fuel:     55  
Ethanol:     12  
Biodiesel:   .1 (100,000 gallons)

In the United States, our economy is incredibly dependent on oil. Approximately 95% of transportation fuel comes from oil, and currently there is no suitable replacement. We will eventually find one, but it does not exist today. We have become dependent on cheap oil and it is about to become expensive and in short supply. We've been making plans for a world that is no longer going to exist in its current form. If you're still optimistic that our world can continue on in its current form, then you should do more research. There's no short term fix. The market or human ingenuity can't keep our current economic system intact.

The way I see it, our only option is to start over. We have to create a new world based on less energy requirements. Although I am not excited about the prospect, I do see an opportunity to build a sustainable civilization. The shift towards this new way of life is not a decade away, but years. We are helplessly in the final months of cheap abundant oil.

 
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